https://www.site/2016-03-17/evgeniy_minchenko_o_kremlevskih_klanah_sudbe_kadyrova_i_oshibkah_gubernatorov

“It is possible that we have not heard the name of the future president yet”

Evgeny Minchenko - about the Kremlin clans, the fate of Kadyrov and the mistakes of governors

Political scientist, vice-president of the Russian Association for Public Relations Evgeny Minchenko is one of the most quoted Russian experts. He was the first to come up with the idea of ​​ranking all the heads of Russian regions by launching the “Governor Survival Rating” (after which many of his fellow consultants began making similar products). Then he began a series of reports “Politburo 2.0”, from which fans of “Kremlinology” could learn information about new clans, alliances and confrontations. A last years he carefully studies theory and practice political life Europe and USA. Not so long ago, Evgeny Minchenko published the book “How elections are won in the USA, Great Britain and the European Union: analysis of political technologies.”.

- Let's start with Syria. The military campaign is apparently over. Who can be called the winner, who can be called the loser? Not in a geopolitical sense, but in terms of internal politics and inter-clan relations in the Kremlin.

“Putin won because he showed the ability to make unconventional moves and prevented the international isolation that seemed inevitable. At the same time, the country was not drawn into a long-term military conflict similar to the Afghan one.

Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu won because he showed the high efficiency and effectiveness of the actions of the Russian army.

And the weakened ones are, rather, the special services, which did not predict the attack on our pilots from Turkey.

"KP-Pskov"

- IN last days Notable developments are taking place in federal ministries. Putin criticized the work of the Ministry of Internal Affairs. The Ministry of Culture was searched and the deputy minister was arrested. What does all of this mean?

— There have already been precedents for arrests of deputy ministers. Remember, for example, Sergei Storchak in the Ministry of Finance of Alexei Kudrin. However, this did not directly affect the group's position. In the situation with the Ministry of Culture, it is interesting that the Pskov governor Turchak is at risk, since the reconstruction project of the Izborsk complex was one of the main projects of his governorship.

Personally, Minister of Culture Vladimir Medinsky, in my opinion, is not under attack yet.

As for Kolokoltsev, the influence of his first deputy Viktor Zolotov (former head of Vladimir Putin’s security service - editor’s note) is very strong in the Ministry of Internal Affairs. And the fate of the minister largely depends on the career prospects of his deputy. There are several employment options for Zolotov - like moving to another job law enforcement agency, and coming to the first position in the Ministry of Internal Affairs.

Ramzan Kadyrov's Instagram

— How do you assess the latest actions of Ramzan Kadyrov? Which Kremlin clans is Kadyrov connected with? Or is he his own clan? Is it true that Zolotov patronized him? Is it possible to peacefully dismantle the Kadyrov system in Chechnya?

— Kadyrov’s actions are bargaining. Firstly, for remaining in power. Secondly, for the election system. At the moment, Chechnya is the only region of the North Caucasus where local law provides for direct elections of the head. And for Kadyrov, a special position among other Caucasian leaders is fundamentally important.

He's really ready to leave. A triumvirate of Kadyrov - Delimkhanov - Daudov has emerged in the republic. Kadyrov can transfer the formal powers of the head to any of the triumvirs. He publicly named Delimkhanov as his successor several times.

But making a completely new person a successor means breaking the entire system there, which is fraught with catastrophic consequences. Therefore, I believe that the likelihood of Kadyrov retaining his post is very high.

Alexander Miridonov/Kommersant

— What reaction do your reports on the Politburo evoke in the Politburo itself? Perhaps all these pressure groups and clans do not consider themselves such? Have you ever encountered opposition from Politburo members or attempts to influence the conclusions of your research?

— The first report in this series was published in August 2012. And that same day, I received several calls from our research subjects and their team members. Mostly they gave “feedback”. They pointed out some inaccuracies, in their opinion. They expressed their readiness to help with advice. They themselves are interested in how they look from the outside. But the general opinion was that this is approximately how it is. There were comments on some particulars.

Overall, it was such a useful networking event. Thanks to this product, I have greatly expanded my circle of contacts ( laughs). And this in turn increased the quality of the product itself.

There were no attempts at pressure. We are not apologists for the regime and not its denouncers. We try to provide an objective analysis. Our reports have been translated into several languages ​​and are studied at specialized faculties of foreign universities, for example at Georgetown University (Washington).

— How do you assess Medvedev’s prospects before and after the State Duma elections (depending on the results)? Who are the obvious candidates for the post of prime minister today, and what will determine the choice?

— The prospects are good. He remains in Putin's inner circle. Even if Medvedev ceases to be prime minister (for example, he takes the position of speaker of the State Duma or head of Supreme Court), he will remain a member of Politburo 2.0 and the leader of a powerful elite group with a serious economic basis.

The casting of candidates for prime minister is underway. Possible candidates are Sergei Ivanov, Yuri Trutnev, Alexey Kudrin, Sergei Sobyanin. But these are rather backup options.

The only thing that could theoretically prevent Putin from going to the 2018 elections is some kind of health problem Dmitry Azarov/Kommersant

— Is a Kremlin alternative to Putin possible in the 2018 elections? (That is, that it will not be Putin who will run in the elections)?

- Only in extraordinary circumstances. And so, of course, the base scenario is one more term for the current president.

— What extraordinary circumstances could there be?

— I think it’s just a health condition. His leadership in the ruling class is unconditional. The ratings are unprecedentedly high. Even if there is a correction, it is unlikely to be significant.

— What are the potential candidates for the elections in 2024 among the current politicians?

— Much can still change. It’s possible that we haven’t even heard the name of the future president yet. Which of us, those who were not involved in St. Petersburg politics, heard the name of Putin at least in 1997? For example, I didn’t hear about it until he was appointed director of the FSB.

Who would have thought that Trump would become the favorite in the race in the US Republican primaries? We conducted a large study in the States a year and a half ago, interviewing leading political consultants and politicians. Out of 60 experts, only one person named Trump as a candidate, and then with a grin and a comment that he would be a marginal candidate who would quickly leave the race.

Reuters

— What technologies currently used in the US elections will be relevant in the 2016-2018 elections in Russia (State Duma and President)?

— The Committee on Political Technologies of the Russian Association for Public Relations (RASO), which I head, has just conducted a study on this topic.

The main difference is that in the United States, candidates have virtually unlimited access to voter databases and the ability to compare them with commercial databases (income, consumption patterns, consumer preferences). This makes it possible to create personalized messages for almost every voter (so-called microtargeting). In Russia (as well as in the European Union), with its strict restrictions on the use of personal data, this is illegal. Therefore, the most powerful election technology in the United States, associated with the use of so-called big data, doesn't work for us.

The role of CRM field management systems (through computer and mobile applications) is growing; it directly depends on the prevalence of smartphones among the population. In wealthy regions, sociologists and agitators often use tablets for polling and campaigning.

— Since we’re talking about the USA, do you like the TV series “House of Cards”? To what extent do you think it reflects the reality of American political life and international relations?

— Reality does not reflect practically anything, with very rare exceptions. But it conveys the atmosphere of cynical bargaining well.

As for the reflection of international politics, the series rather shows the mood of the American elite. Please note that in the third season, which was released early last year, “ Russian President Petrov" was simply a fiend from hell. But in the fourth season, which was released quite recently, this is already a normal partner, not without difficulties and problems, but with whom you can deal. And Russian special forces in Syria is not a bad idea, but cynical Republicans are preventing it from selfish, narrow party interests.

It is impossible to be friends with America. Conflict is unproductive Dmitry Azarov/Kommersant

— Do you believe the Kremlin maxim that the United States is an enemy of Russia who dreams of the weakening and collapse of our country?

— The task of the United States is to prevent the creation of an entity that could hypothetically threaten its existence. They implement this task using six types of leadership:

1. Military. A network of bases and allies around the world. Last time Special attention is given to densely covering the military infrastructure of China (especially its maritime communications) and, to a lesser extent, Russia.

2. Economic. A network of US-led free trade zones. The Pacific Partnership has already been created. The Transatlantic Partnership, which will include the European Union, is approaching.

3. Ideological. And this is not only the export of democracy, but also the rules of the game on a wide range of issues - from gender relations to climate policy. And this ultimately results in serious financial benefits.

4. Technological. New technologies, a revolution in robotics, medicine, 3D printers, etc. The world is moving to a new technological order, and the United States will be its main beneficiary.

5. Informational. The ability to collect, accumulate and process huge amounts of information from all over the world. And the surveillance system that Snowden spoke about is only part of this huge machine. Much more important is its effectiveness in business and management of economic processes.

6. Cultural. The amount of product produced in the States and its impact in the world is unprecedented.

So the rhinoceros may have poor eyesight, but given its size, this is not its problem. Yes, US actions create problems for Russia. If we want to counteract this with something, and ideally use it, then we must, first of all, have a good understanding of the motives and mechanisms of decision-making, without emotional overtones.

— Is it better for Russia to be friends with the United States or to harshly oppose it?

— Friendship with the USA is impossible. I don’t believe in friendship between states at all. There can only be unions of egoists who defend their national interests. Only situational tactical agreements are possible.

But a harsh conflict with the United States is also counterproductive. Therefore, we need to study their logic, their interests and, importantly, formulate our own national interests. But the Russian political class has a problem both with understanding its counterparties and with understanding itself and its objective interests.

Daria Shelekhova

— From your point of view, are appointments from above anyone consistent with the Constitution of the Russian Federation? How many articles of the Constitution do you think are not implemented in this country and who should be responsible for this?

— I don’t presume to answer: these questions are within the competence of the Constitutional Court.

— How and how much does the Kremlin pay its political scientists? How does this system work?

- Don't know. Are there any? It seems to me that there are those who claim this title. The Presidential Administration communicates with experts from very different political views- from liberals to conservationists. As far as I understand, they strive to receive the widest possible range of opinions.

— How much does it cost to increase the governor in your rating?

- To be high mark, several factors are needed - federal support, competent political management and a favorable environment.

- Which typical mistakes allow governors?

— Governors of resource-rich and attractive regions and governors of depressed and subsidized regions should have fundamentally different strategies. In the second category, the main thing is not to stick your head out and not generate negative information reasons.

1. An alliance with one of the members, or at worst candidates for membership, of “Politburo 2.0”. Otherwise, in the context of a reduction in the volume of distributed resources, you can become a victim of elite struggle.

2. Balance of interests of elite groups. Preventing elite wars.

3. Built-in system of communication with the population. Personal popularity.

4. Availability of development projects (“milk yield”).

5. Competent communication with security forces.

— Is it possible, in your opinion, for the return of completely free gubernatorial elections in Russia? Is there a real risk of the country disintegrating or separate regions breaking away, or is this nothing more than a Kremlin myth to scare the population and maintain power?

— The level of competition is growing every year. Pay attention to what happened in the Irkutsk region last year. The candidate from the Communist Party of the Russian Federation won the competitive campaign against the incumbent governor. And this precedent will increase motivation to participate.

There is a risk of the country's collapse. It is connected not with electoral procedures, but with the presence of national subjects of the Federation, in which local elites begin to build their own proto-statehood based on local nationalism.

— Don’t the current tenets of elections “based on party lists” and the absence of at least a 50 percent minimum threshold for voter turnout contradict the Constitution and common sense?

- No. Similar systems exist in many countries.

— This is a question for law enforcement officers. But such a call would be meaningless.

— If in world practice there are successful social states, where there are no parties in politics?

- I haven’t heard of these.

— It is increasing every year, but so far does not reach the level of effectiveness of elite agreements and field campaigns.

— Do you use any digital technologies when working with your clients (working with reputation on the Internet, displacing negativity from search engines, agents of influence, etc.)?

— Specialized agencies do this. I am skeptical about the specific technologies you mentioned.

Vladimir Fedorenko/RIA Novosti

— What articles of the Constitution of the Russian Federation, in your opinion, hinder our further development?

— In the future, it would be possible to slightly reduce the scope of the president’s powers and redistribute them in favor of parliament. But this will happen in 10 years, when we get an established party system.

— Khodorkovsky behaved very smartly immediately after his release from prison, but then, under the influence of the environment, he went into a radical niche. And so, I believe that he had the opportunity to become an active participant in the big elite game, but he himself refused it. His initiative to finance candidates for the State Duma is grist for the Kremlin’s mill - it helps create the image of an enemy.

Navalny is a smart and cynical politician, a talented communicator who knows how to enter into coalitions with the powers that be and be an instrument in the intra-elite struggle. Of course, he dreams of turning from a tool into a subject and becoming part of the ruling class himself. It's not working yet. But he's still young.

— Now you are an authoritative political consultant with a name and a rich background of successful projects. How did you take your first steps in this market? How did you find clients and convince them to work with you when you were a young (23-year-old, according to your official biography) analyst with virtually no experience or portfolio?

— We made closed analytical notes and passed them on to potential customers. The atmosphere of mystery and conspiracy worked effectively. My postgraduate studies at the Academy of Civil Service under the President of the Russian Federation also helped me in finding clients and customers.

Education

Graduated from the Faculty of History of Chelyabinsk State University (1993), postgraduate studies at the Russian Academy of Public Administration under the President of the Russian Federation with a degree in political psychology (1997).

Activity

In 1988-1992 - coach, chairman of the board of coaches of the Sakura Martial Arts Center.

In 1992-1993, he was an instructor in psychological training at the Security Service Training Center.

From 1993 to 2009 - General Director of the New Image analytical agency, specializing in political consulting and conducting election campaigns. Participant in more than 100 election campaigns in Russia and neighboring countries. For several years he has been included in the TOP 20 best political strategists in Russia (according to Obshchaya Gazeta).

In 2011, he was included in the top ten most famous political strategists in Russia according to the Vedomosti newspaper and the Medialogia company.

“The communication holding Minchenko Consulting is in first place in the Rating of the main players in the political consulting market in Russia (Company magazine, September 2011).

From 1999 to 2011 - committee expert State Duma Russian Federation on security.

In 2003-2007 - Advisor to the Chairman of the State Duma Commission on Anti-Corruption.

Since 2004 - Advisor to the Chairman of the State Duma Committee of the Russian Federation on CIS Affairs and Relations with Compatriots.

In 2001-2002 he headed the South Ural Association for Public Relations.

In 2002 he worked as a deputy general director Domodedovo Airlines for public relations and government relations.

Since March 2004, he has headed the International Institute of Political Expertise (IIPE).

In 2007, he founded the lobbying agency Minchenko GR-Consulting.

Since 2009 - President of the Communications Holding "Minchenko Consulting" (which includes the PR agency New Image, the International Institute of Political Expertise (MIPE), the lobbying agency "Minchenko GR Consulting").

Vice-President of the Russian Association for Public Relations (RASO),

in 2006-2008 - founder and first chairman of the committee for government relations,

since 2008 - Chairman of the Committee on the Image of Russia.

Since 2005 - lecturer at the Faculty of World Politics at Moscow State University. Lomonosov (course “Strategic planning of political and lobbying activities”).

In 2008-2010 – Chairman of the Board of the Institute of Ukraine. Received gratitude from the head of the Administration of the President of the Russian Federation S.E. Naryshkin. for contribution to the development of Russian-Ukrainian relations

Full member of the National Academy of Social Technologies (NAST).

Editor of the Internet publication “Stratagema.org”, dedicated to the problems of political consulting and lobbying.

Member of the public council of the Ministry of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation, the expert council under the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation. He is a member of expert group No. 21 for finalizing the “Strategy 2020”.

Initiator of the “Political Survival Ratings” of governors in Russia (the latest tenth rating of the political survival of governors can be read here and compare forecasts with reality), co-organizer of the “Rating of Political Influence of Russian City Heads”.

Area of ​​professional interests: politics in Russia and post-Soviet countries, energy, lobbying technologies, geopolitical lobbying.

Hobbies – boxing, martial arts, Go, history and culture of Japan, ancient literature, theory of military affairs.

Married, has a daughter, Elizabeth.

Bibliography

Author methodological manuals“The use of psychotechnologies in the training of security officers” (1992), “The use of psychotechnologies in the training of martial artists” (1993), “Methods of non-contact psychodiagnostics” (1993).

Wikimedia Foundation.

2010.

See what “Minchenko, Evgeniy Nikolaevich” is in other dictionaries: President of the holding company “New Image MIPE (International Institute of Political Expertise)”. Born on April 17, 1970 in Chelyabinsk. Graduated from the Faculty of History of Chelyabinsk state university (1993), postgraduate study at the Russian Academy... ...

Financial Dictionary

Born in 1970 in Chelyabinsk.

In 1993 he graduated from the history department of Chelyabinsk State University. In 1997 he graduated from graduate school at the Russian Academy of Public Administration under the President of the Russian Federation with a degree in political psychology.

"News"

Minchenko: The head of the Nenets Autonomous Okrug was dismissed under pressure from Rosneft

The resignation of the governor of the Nenets Autonomous Okrug (NAO) occurred as a result of Rosneft lobbying its interests, believes political scientist Evgeny Minchenko. As an expert told a Rosbalt correspondent, Igor Koshin lost his position as a result of the struggle between two oil corporations.

“Rosneft has a problematic relationship with LUKOIL, and the governor fell victim to this tension. It must be assumed that Rosneft, for which the Nenets Autonomous Okrug is one of its significant assets, needed more control over the region,” said Evgeny Minchenko.

11 out of 27 points. The head of Yakutia crossed the “yellow line” “Of the large federal projects, only “Power of Siberia”, the participation of the republican authorities in which is rather nominal. The failure of the Russian-Indian project to build a plant for the production of fertilizers and methanol. Losing to Primorye in the competition for the construction of a diamond cutting plant. This is compounded by such problems as the region’s high public debt (more than 51 billion rubles) and the debt load of a number of large enterprises, increased competition in the diamond market (expansion from synthetic diamond producers), a weak energy security system and the risk of accidents in winter time

“,” Evgeniy Minchenko, head of Minchenko Consulting, lists the failures of the region in the telegram channel.

Koshin, while leading an economically attractive region, had minimal support from Putin’s entourage (only in the person of the Chairman of the Federation Council Valentina Matvienko) and at the same time came into conflict with the largest oil company Rosneft. This is how the new rating of stability of governors, “State Council 2.0,” prepared by Minchenko Consulting, explains his resignation. The study will be published in full on Friday.

“Vladimir Putin’s Big Government and Politburo 2.0.” Report

Returning to the Kremlin, Vladimir Putin created a model in which the president actually leads the entire vertical of executive power. The report “Vladimir Putin’s Big Government and Politburo 2.0”, based on a survey of more than 60 representatives of the country’s political and business elite, was compiled by the president of the Minchenko Consulting holding, Evgeniy Minchenko, and the head of the analytical department of the International Institute of Political Expertise, Kirill Petrov.
link: http://www.compromat.ru/page_ 32442.htm

The Politburo rules the country again

“Russian government is by no means a rigid vertical structure controlled by one person,” says the report “Vladimir Putin’s Big Government and Politburo 2.0,” prepared by the communications holding Minchenko Consulting. The report will be presented on Tuesday, said the head of the holding and the International Institute of Political Expertise (IIPE), Evgeniy Minchenko.
link: http://www.gazeta.ru/politics

Tandem is dead! Long live the Politburo!

Tandem is dead! Long live the Politburo! The other day, the president of the Minchenko Consulting holding, Evgeniy Minchenko, and the head of the analytical department of the International Institute of Political Expertise, Kirill Petrov, presented the report “Vladimir Putin’s Big Government and the Politburo 2.0.” “Interlocutor” got acquainted with the new political balance of power.
link: http://sobesednik.ru

Surkov was given back some of his powers, tasked with working with religious organizations

The president of the Minchenko Consulting holding, Evgeny Minchenko, believes that although Surkov is returning part of his powers, he will not have the same influence on the formation of the domestic political agenda, since Vladimir Putin has no claims to his successor in the presidential administration, Vyacheslav Volodin. “Surkov is busy not only as the head of the government apparatus, he will also be seriously busy working on the department that is now being created in the government to work with the Open Government,” says Minchenko. “Now he has been assigned to work with religious organizations - a direction that is familiar to him "
link: http://regions.ru/news/ 2423268/

Zudin: the beginning of political system reforms dates back to 2008

The report was prepared by the president of the Minchenko Consulting holding, Evgeniy Minchenko, and the head of the analytical department of the International Institute of Political Expertise, Kirill Petrov, based on a survey of more than 60 representatives of the country’s political and business elite.
link: http://actualcomment.ru/news/ 47208/

The new “Politburo” and the clans at the head of the Russian Federation

The current model of management, which developed in the “zero”, according to the president of the Minchenko Consulting holding, Evgeniy Minchenko, and the head of the analytical department of the International Institute of Political Expertise, Kirill Petrov, who compiled the report, resembles the model of the Soviet Politburo.

“The specificity of Politburo 2.0 is that, firstly, it almost never meets at general meetings. Secondly, the formal status of its members does not always correlate with real influence on the decision-making process,” the report emphasizes.
link: http://sibgrad.com/index.php/

“Experts” have selected a Politburo for Vladimir Putin

The report “Vladimir Putin’s Big Government and Politburo 2.0”, based on a survey of more than 60 representatives of the country’s political and business elite, was compiled by the president of the Minchenko Consulting holding, Evgeniy Minchenko, and the head of the analytical department of the International Institute of Political Expertise, Kirill Petrov. According to experts, upon returning to the Kremlin, Vladimir Putin created a model in which the president actually leads the entire executive branch. This was achieved through various measures, including through the creation of departments in the presidential administration (AP) under the control of former Putin ministers, which in fact “can compete with government ministries and departments.”
link: http://aftershock.su/node/ 12778

Political scientists talked about how Putin created his Politburo

It is noteworthy that members of the Politburo never gather at the same table. The mechanism is designed in such a way that all disputes between clans are resolved by Vladimir Putin, who is the main arbiter. At the same time, it is precisely this system that has allowed Putin to strengthen his position in recent years, Evgeniy Minchenko, president of the communications holding Minchenko Consulting, told Echo of Moscow.

“Putin is purposefully bringing to the forefront those people who do not have a clan background. For example, the new Minister of Internal Affairs Kolokoltsev,” the expert explained.
link: http://www.online812.ru/2012/08/21/005/

“How to survive in the Internet era?” - discussed by the participants of the Komsomolskaya Pravda Business Reputation Club

Denis Terekhov, managing partner of the agency " Social media" offered effective methods protection from unscrupulous competitors conducting information attacks on the Internet. Evgeny Minchenko, a famous political scientist, president of the communications holding Minchenko Consulting, spoke about transnational lobbying, about the tools with which the new elites are trying to rule this world.
link: http://www.mediaguide.ru/?p= news&id=503dcc67

Resources and power in Russia are distributed among 8 large and about 20 small groups, experts say

Resources, power and property in Russia are distributed between 8 large and about 20 small groups, for which Vladimir Putin acts as a moderator. This was announced on the radio station “Echo of Moscow” by the president of the communications holding company “Minchenko Consulting” Evgeniy Minchenko.

“The model of inter-clan balance was characteristic of Russian Federation almost the entire post-Soviet period, but under Putin it became more complex than during Yeltsin’s rule,” said E. Minchenko.
link: http://www.echomsk.spb.ru/ news

Governors were ranked again

As noted by the compilers of the rating of the political survival of regional heads, Mikhail Vinogradov and Evgeny Minchenko, the transition to popular gubernatorial elections does not deprive the federal government of the levers to initiate the replacement of the head of the region, since “the dismissal procedure “due to loss of trust” in one form or another is supposed to be retained in the legislation " In addition, “in recent years, the mechanisms of federal coercion for “voluntary” resignation have been well developed.”
link: http://www.kommersant.ru/doc/1906598/print

Experts predict an interesting fight in the elections in the Ryazan and Bryansk regions

President of the Minchenko Consulting holding Evgeniy Minchenko believes that the weakest among the current governors are Kovalev (Ryazan region) and Denin (Bryansk region). Thus, opposition candidates have a real chance to win elections in these areas, the expert believes.

“In my opinion, the fact that we managed to collect signatures, despite administrative pressure, for example, Igor Morozov in the Ryazan region, the fact that there is obvious competition in the Bryansk region, I think this indicates that civil society is ready to there was political competition,” he said.
link: